Barbarism is making a strategic surrender. Civilization is winning. For now, at least.
“An entire civilization will die tonight, never to return,” Trump said in a social media post, thereby threatening to wipe out an ancient civilization that gave the world algebra and influenced art, science, and governance in unprecedented ways. History will record it with a gaze as merciless as the sun.
Crucially, not a single word was heard from the political leaders of the entire “civilized” collective West in response to this barbaric outburst, not even feigned outrage, thereby once again proving their absolute and irreversible moral and political bankruptcy.
The President of the United States, confronted with the inevitable and disastrous consequences of his own strategic blunder, is now begging for a pause because the Empire of Chaos had run out of military means. The ultimate proof of this was the withdrawal of the USS Tripoli — under fire — into the depths of the southern Indian Ocean, with 2,500 Marines on board.
The U.S. Navy also withdrew from the war zone, apart from the submarines armed with Tomahawk missiles, about half of which astonishingly missed their targets with remarkable imprecision.
And the problems are far from over. A financial hell is looming, with 10 trillion dollars in Treasury bonds maturing in 2026. And the petrodollar is rapidly heading for the dustbin of history.
Israel recognizes no ceasefire and is looking for loopholes that allow it to continue killing everyone it encounters. Israel is endlessly violating the ceasefire with daily bombings of Beirut, leaving hundreds of innocent civilians dead, especially children. Iran, Hezbollah, and the Houthis will strike back massively, without attacking American targets.
Yet it is far too early to conclude that Trump has lost his war on every possible front: morally, legally, politically, economically, and strategically.
This is a war to the bitter end against the three main advocates of a multipolar world: Iran, China, and Russia.
China’s power play, plus a few hard facts
Before the ceasefire, China was receiving 1.2 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, effectively through 26 tankers from a ghost fleet whose transponders were not functioning. Payment was handled in yuan through CIPS, a new alternative payment system, at the toll gate of the Strait of Hormuz.
All of this took place without SWIFT, sanctions, the petrodollar, or Western insurance — de facto implemented at the most crucial chokepoint in the world.
The key point now is that China is getting some breathing room: the threat of ending all Iranian oil exports appears to have disappeared. That explains the reason behind China’s last-minute guarantee to Iran.
Now compare this with the stated “goals” of the Empire of Chaos:
To provoke regime change
To seize enriched uranium
To destroy the missile program
To destroy Iran’s ability to project power
It all ended in a strategic blunder, highlighted by the new status of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman will coordinate toll collection for every ship crossing the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire and certainly afterwards as well, within a detailed legal framework.
It is clear that the Empire of Chaos is trying to buy time, even as Iran retains the initiative.
This is the main conclusion of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
“At the highest level, it has been decided that Iran will negotiate in Islamabad for two weeks, solely on the basis of these principles [the Iranian 10 points]. This does not mean the war is over; Iran will accept the end of the war only when these principles are confirmed in detail.”
Let us briefly go through the 10 points that Trump supposedly “accepted” in theory:
Commitment to non-aggression;
Preservation of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz;
Agreement on uranium enrichment;
Lifting of all primary sanctions;
Lifting of all secondary sanctions;
Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions;
Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions;
Payment of compensation to Iran;
Withdrawal of American combat troops from the region;
End of the war on all fronts, including the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Sanctions relief will not come; the U.S. Congress will never allow it. The American guarantee that it will not attack Iran again is a joke. Moreover, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot guarantee anything regarding Gaza or Lebanon.
Yet this is an extremely risky move for Iran and a huge test for China as the principal guarantor. Iran has suffered terrible damage, especially in the petrochemical industry. Even with major Chinese investments, it will take years before that sector is restored. So civilization survives for now. A few facts as well.
1: The U.S. is no longer a superpower.
2: Iran is back as one of the greatest powers in the world.
3: Most of the cowardly petro-monarchies in the Gulf will permanently expel the American military bases.
4: Qatar and Oman will conclude a security agreement with Iran.
The key question remains, and it concerns the whole world: how do we find a remedy for that cancer in West Asia?
Pepe Escobar